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⚠️ Risk of Ruin Calculator

Probability of catastrophic loss before reaching profit target

📊 Strategy Parameters

Win Rate (%)

Average Win / Average Loss

Risk Per Trade (% of Account)

Ruin Threshold (% Drawdown)

Profit Target (% Gain)

Simulations

Expected Edge

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Risk of Ruin

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Ruin Probability

<5% — Safe

5-15% — Caution

15-30% — Risky

>30% — Dangerous

Reach Target

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Avg Trades to Target

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Median Final Equity

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Max Drawdown (Avg)

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Final Equity Distribution

Ruin Risk by Position Size

Sample Equity Curves (20 paths)

📐 Optimal Position Sizing

Kelly Criterion

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Optimal (theoretical max)

Half Kelly (Recommended)

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Safer with similar returns

Max Safe Size (<5% ruin)

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For ruin probability <5%

Risk Probability Table

Drawdown Level	Probability	Avg Trades to Hit	Assessment
Run simulation to see results

Monte Carlo simulation with 100 max trades per path • Position sizing uses fixed fractional method

Risk of Ruin = P(hitting ruin before target) • Not financial advice